Hawthorne picks and analysis: 3.12.16

Over at Danonymous Racing, I have picks and analysis for tomorrow’s card at Hawthorne!

The day features an eight-race card, including the first route race of the meet.  There is a classy allowance for open company, a well-subscribed allowance for Illinois-bred fillies, and beatable favourites all day long.

Read my preview of the card, and play along with me at Hawthorne tomorrow!  As always, I’ll be tweeting my live notes and observations from @picksponderings…and if you’re at the track, say hi!

Update after race-day scratches:

Race 3: Luck With a Kiss (1), Lazylovin (2), W W Distinction (3)

Luck With a Kiss remains the best bet of the day — he sends from the rail, that’s all, no one should catch him.  That said, for the undersides, original third choice Exactness scratched the morning of the race.  W W Distinction may be a deep closer, but he fires so consistently and often gets a share whether the field is short or huge, whether the pace is zippy or slow.  This honest horse should be in for a piece late again today.

Race 4: Magic Moonlight (2), W W Orient (8), Dontforgettofloss (7)

Original third choice Redbone scratched, as well as a pair of others, Valiant Point and Risk and Return.  Risk and Return was the likely chalk; with him gone, W W Orient will likely take most of the money on the strength of his connections.  With the shorter field and the loss of the relatively speedy Risk and Return, Magic Moonlight (the original top selection) benefits, and remains the top pick.  As a third choice underneath, the pickings have become rather slim with the field scratched to five, but Dontforgettofloss should be forwardly placed, and the rider change to Victor Santiago is a positive one.

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