Hawthorne full-card picks and analysis: 4.9.16

The Hawthorne spring meet continues — this time, with some overnight winter weather.  In light of that, speed should carry quite well, and these selections take that into account.

The card is heavy on maidens, with four of the eight races today being either maiden specials or maiden claimers.

Without further ado, let’s dive into the card!

Race 1: $7,500 maiden claiming, three-year-olds and up, one mile and seventy yards on the dirt, post time 2:10pm CDT

Selections:  Ranger Sam (1), Titius (6), Eye to Thrill (3)

For my full analysis, read the latest Chicago Railbird.

Race 2: $4,000 claiming, three-year-olds and up, N2L, five furlongs on the dirt, post time 2:40pm CDT

Selections:  Go Bob Go (3), Jackieboy (5), Noble Leader (2)

Jackieboy and Aweosme Citizen are both speed, and both have serious questions.  Go Bob Go should get first run on them if he comes back any sharper from his lay.  He showed nothing last out, but here he faces a softer group, and gets a rider upgrade to Carlos Montalvo.  He is one of the few in this race with dry-track form, too.  Jackieboy is likely the speed of the speed.  His performance has been dodgy here, but he was third last out, and he gets a class drop from his last outing.  The connections are strong as well: Edgar Perez has been winning 22% of the time, and Ingrid Mason wins at 28% with last-out beaten favourites.  Noble Leader has not raced since October, but he gets a class drop here.  His 3-1-1-0 record at dirt dash distances is strong, as well.  He will probably be coming in from too far off the pace to win, but he should be rallying for a share late on class alone.

Race 3: $7,500 maiden claiming, three-year-olds and up, five and a half furlongs on the dirt, post time 3:10pm CDT

Selections:  Tactical Charlie (6), Wanna Danze Lady (2), B S Indy Cat (5)

For my full analysis, read the latest Chicago Railbird.

Race 4: $4,000 claiming, four-year-olds and up, non-winners of two races in 2015-2016, claiming races for $3,200 or less not considered in eligibility, six and a half furlongs on the dirt, post time 3:40pm CDT

Selections:  Azeg (2), Coolride (6), Dr. Jajo (4)

Azeg is the class of the field, and drops to the softest company he has ever faced.  He should have fitness, too, since he raced three times at Oaklawn this winter.  He benefits hugely from the scratch of Paper Maker, the only other dyed-in-the-wool speed here.  He should be able to outgun Garland’s Spirit and take them all the way around.  If Azeg tires, Coolride stands to get the run at him.  He was second beaten only a nose in his only try at six and a half furlongs, and that came over this same track last year.  The switch back to Carlos Montalvo in the irons is a positive move; all of his sharp races over the Hawthorne track came with Montalvo aboard, and he has been riding well.   Dr. Jajo won a race at this six and a half furlong distance at Turfway back in December, and has a 3-1-0-1 lifetime record over the Hawthorne track.  He takes a bit of a class drop compared to what he was facing at Turfway, and should benefit from getting pace in front of him.

Race 5: Maiden special weight, three-year-olds and up, one mile and seventy yards on the dirt, post time 4:10pm CDT

Selections:  Scitech (3), Drayke’s Channel (6), West Ghost (2)

For my full analysis, read the latest Chicago Railbird.

Race 6: $4,000 claiming, four-year-olds and up, non-winners of two races in 2015-2016, six and a half furlongs on the dirt, post time 4:40pm CDT

Selections:  Ballistic Tim (6), Name Dropper (5), Senor Tremendo (2)

Name Dropper is by far the one to beat in this field: he has the best recent form, the best speeds, as well as solid lines over the track and distance.  However, he does his best work from off the pace, and usually needs a race off the lay.  With that, it makes sense to go two deep in here, especially since Ballistic Tim will be an enormous price.  There is no speed in this race, and what little solid work Ballistic Tim has done has been done on the lead.  Ballistic Tim also has a race under him this meet, opening up a chance that he may sharpen up here.  Senor Tremendo stands to fill out the intra-race exotics.  He is in decent recent form, and though he does his best work from well off the pace, he is fast enough and consistent enough over the Hawthorne track to have a good chance to get in for a share against so many foes with no recent form.

Race 7: $5,000 claiming, non-winners of two races since October 9 OR N4L, one and one sixteenth miles on the dirt, post time 5:10pm CDT

Selections:  Bull Market Richie (6), Calmer Than You (2), Dynamical (1)

In a race with quite a bit of speed, Bull Market Richie looks solid.  He likes the course (8-2-1-2), loves the distance (6-2-1-2), and is a closer who reliably fires.  He has not raced since December, but trainer Larry Rivelli wins a quarter of the time with runners laid off three months or longer.  He gets sharp rider Chris Emigh in the irons, and should be ready to fire once more.  Typically Mahoning shippers get little weight here, but despite the fact he last ran there, Calmer Than You rates here as well.  He was in solid form in two starts at Turfway through the winter, and has back form at Hawthorne as well.  He has run nineteen times over the track, with four wins and six more money finishes.  He stretches out to two turns for the first time in a while, but has a win and a third in two starts at the distance, suggesting he should like it.  His stalking to mid-pack running style should suit, as well; he should be out of the front-end fireworks, but not too far.  Dynamical, the “Rivelli A” to Bull Market Richie’s “Rivelli B”, should have a fitness edge after three starts at Tampa over the winter.  He has back class as well as some back form over the Hawthorne track, and should make a better account of himself here on a dry track than he did in December here, when facing far tougher over slop.

Race 8: Maiden special weight, three-year-olds and up, Illinois-bred, fillies and mares, six furlongs on the dirt, post time 5:40pm CST

Selections:  Bella Carmella (1), Fighting Market (2), Only Praise Me (4)

For my full analysis, read the latest Chicago Railbird.

Original top selection Summer’s Rap scratched.  Only Praise Me, at least, was third against similar company earlier this meet.  Trainer Chris Dorris has been having another strong meet, and wins at 27% with positive ROI on last-out beaten favourites.  They hit the board over half the time.  Almost certainly the second choice in the betting, a step forward from that performance puts Only Praise Me in for a share.  the biggest worry is the off-pace style she showed last out, given what a threat Bella Carmella is to wire.

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