full-card Hawthorne picks and analysis: 4.30.16

Today, the Hawthorne meet draws to a close with an eight-race nighttime card.  Over at Danonymous Racing, I have a look at tonight’s action, from start to finish.

All races have been taken off the turf, so the slop analysis applies.  Furthermore, scratches have been posted.  Here are my edits, notes, and additions based on the scratches, with new top threes when applicable:

Race 1:  The race is on dirt, and scratched to five, making the speedy Part ‘n Parcel an even more emphatic top selection than before.  Lethal and Kip Hip Hooray both remain in the field, and both figure strongly.

Race 3:  9-6: A race that originally drew 11 horses has scratched down to a field of four with scratches.  Top dirt selection Hay Dakota (9) remains, and should be fast enough to get the lead.  Big Dinner (6) also figures on class.

Race 5:  All the original slop selections hold.  Go Lady Jay did, in fact, get the scratch of Kana, which helps her a lot.

Race 6:  3-4-5: Crusader Girl Too has scratched.  My Foolish Heart remains the pick, though the price may not be quite as good with her stablemate out.  The scratch of Crusader Girl Too gives the speedy longshot Betty Grables Legs (4) a better chance to get the lead, go as far as she can, and hang on for a share.

Race 7: 4-6-7: Toro Grande was the best bet of the day, but now he is the biggest scratch of the day.  With him out, the picture gets far muddier (pun COMPLETELY intended).  Legend Forever (6) and Dashing Derek (7) still figure, though the loss of Toro Grande on the front end makes Frostbite Falls (4) attractive.  He is second off the lay, and his last particularly good race was a win in the slop last November.

Race 8:  7-6-4: Julie’s Lil Devil and Miss My Rosie remain the top two selections, and are the best horses in the field.  The scratch of the other two possible speeds (Read to Me and Appleslastchance) helps longshot Stef and Me (4), since it leaves her as the only speed left.  She also has an okay record over a sloppy track (6-1-1-1), and comes second off the lay.

Thanks again, Danonymous Racing, for having me this weekend.  Let’s end the Hawthorne meet on a high note!

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