Arlington quick picks: 5.29.16

We are half an hour to post, so I apologise for the lack of the long write-up.  But, here’s who I like in today’s races at Arlington.  Feel free to reach out in the comments or on Twitter (@rogueclown) if you have any questions.

For those of you who watch Periscope, I will also be periodically streaming more extensive analysis from the paddock and the rail through the afternoon!

Race 1:

  1. Mean Intentions – Had a solid run over polytrack last out, and should like the stretch to six and a half furlongs.  By Munnings, an excellent extended-sprint sire.
  2. Holy Bullex – Lightly raced — and another Munnings baby, this one trying an extended sprint for the first time.
  3. Summer Disco – Graduated at Fairmount last out, and tries poly for the first time.  Maybe the light is on.

Race 2:

  1. Havingnoequal – First off the claim for Tammy Domenosky, and goes blinkers-off for the first time.
  2. Tina of Ekati – The most credible speed horse in this field.  The second-itis is a question, but it is her first try at the distance.
  3. Fashion Hill – First-time maiden claiming, a solid work pattern, and solid connections in Mike Stidham and Mitchell Murrill.

Race 3:

  1. In the Chamber – Broke his maiden two years ago over yielding Arlington grass at a mile.  Laid off over a year, but Chris Block tends to return long layoff horses ready to run, and at the right level.
  2. Bourne Country – Taking a big class drop from Keeneland.  Broke his maiden in his only turf mile try, and has a sharp work coming into this.
  3. Mendota – Do not use Mendota on top, since he comes in second too often.  But, as the most credible speed, he likely gets a share.

Race 4:

  1. Hawk Is Ready – Drops into a maiden claimer for the first time, for a barn who wins a lot (and pays a lot) with first-time maiden claimers.  Laid off since December, but a long worktab leading in.
  2. G F Budders– Drops from a third-place finish in $25K company last out, and comes second off the layoff.  E. T. Baird remains in the irons, and the horse has shown a bit more grit than your average front-end maiden claimer.
  3. Trusty Truman – Second against slightly weaker last out, going first off a freshening and first-time poly.  Gets a rider upgrade to Mitchell Murrill, trainer Mike Stidham’s A rider.

Race 5:

  1. Moonlight Mischief – Has shown speed, and few combinations fire as reliably — and at such good prices — as E. T. Baird and Sally Schu.
  2. Red Butte – The only first-time starter, but has one of my favourite angles: his half Apache Point won first out for the same trainer, Frank Kirby.  Also half to Island Drums, who won first out for another barn.  He will be a bomb, too.
  3. Cannes – The logical defensive use — first start as a gelding, dropping from maiden special to maiden claiming, and a strong layoff trainer in Mike Stidham.

Race 6:

  1. Dr. Clark – Comes second off the lay, and finished a close second to next-out winner Top Gato last out.  Has speed, but also a rating gear.  Also has top rider Jose Valdivia back in the irons.
  2. Caitlins Road – Second off a long layoff.  Second against similar in the first start off the lay, and cuts back to six furlongs here — his first try at six, which should hit his breeding perfectly.
  3. Turbulent War – Longshot trainer play: trainer Tammy Domenosky wins at 24% third off the lay, and 21% first off the claim.  She is not one to typically claim a horse for $5,000 and then put him into allowance company, so when she makes such a move, take notice.

Race 7:

  1. Viking – There is no speed in this race other than Viking.  He has been in good form lately, and should lead them all the way around.
  2. W B and Me – Can run relatively close to the pace, helpful in this paceless affair.  Comes in second off the lay, and has some nice works after the last race.
  3. O No Not U Again – Trying something new here; has never raced on the turf before.  Though most efforts have come from well off, he has shown enough speed on occasion that he may show some again while stretching out.

Race 8:

  1. Laflowmylaxbro – Tons of speed in this race.  This class-dropping closer, if he can handle the poly, should be fast enough to beat these, and should be rallying late.
  2. Red Redemption – Tries an extended sprint for the first time, and that should hit his breeding right between the eyes.  He can also stalk off the pace, and stay out of the likely pace battle.
  3. Two Minute Man – Broke his maiden last out, so the light may be on.  There is a lot of speed in this race, but he is likely fastest and most credible.

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