Hawthorne 3.18.17 – Quick Picks

It’s getting close to post time, so this is a bit shorter than usual.  But, here are my thoughts on my top three horses in each race on Hawthorne’s card today.

Best Bet:  Iker (1), Race 7

Live Longshot:  Lady Dozer (5), Race 4

Race 1

  1. She’s Back Again (5) – She had a tune-up at Fair Grounds, and gets a class break here. In an unreliable race, Becker and Santiago are at least dependable connections.
  2. Cowgirl Tyne (3) – With a 9-0-3-2 line, she’s had her chances…but she’s fast enough, and if the track plays for closers like it did yesterday, she figures.
  3. Awesome Lily (2) – She comes in fit from Fair Grounds, and speed is usually helpful in low-level maiden claimers. Also gets the excellent Rafael Hernandez aboard.

Race 2

  1. Flattitude (8) – Second off the lay for the red-hot Mike Durham barn, gets pace to chase, and gets a rider upgrade to Rafael Hernandez.
  2. Leroidessioux (10) – Fit from Fair Grounds, and gets a class break here. Will like having pace in front of him, too.
  3. Roarin Missile (4) – He will also appreciate having pace to run at, but is more effective on synthetic surfaces. Still, a must-use underneath.

Race 3

  1. Infinitive (1) – Second off the lay with hot rider Victor Santiago aboard. Faltered last out in a sprint, but should like two turns just fine, and may benefit if yesterday’s closer bias remains.
  2. Katie’s Warrior (6) – Speed of the speed, and could wire them if she breaks well and speed holds. Inconsistency and yesterday’s track bias are the worries, as she’ll be a short price.
  3. Prime (3) – She should be fit from a few tilts at Turfway over the winter, and her one career win did come at Hawthorne. One of her better races shold get her up for a piece.

Race 4

  1. Lady Dozer (5) – Second off the lay. Everyone in the field likes to be forward, but her. Whether yesterday’s closer bias stays or the track plays fairly, she looms large.
  2. Tryst Cat (2) – Hasn’t been winning since switching out of the Becker barn, but likes the course and distance and has still been hitting the board since the barn change. Gets Rafael Hernandez aboard, and can stalk the pace.
  3. Elizabeth’s Fever (4) – The Slager “A” to Lady Dozer’s Slager “B”. Gets a class drop here, and has form over the course and distance. Won the last time Victor Santiago rode.

Race 5

  1. Cashel Rock (5) – Even with the scratch of Hey Pretty Boy, D’Rapper, Prince Who, and Even Fever all have some pace. Cashel Rock is tactical, likes the course and distance, and comes from an excellent layoff barn.
  2. Scitech (3) – Has more tactical versatility than anyone in this field, and is two-for-three (including an open allowance win and a state-bred allowance win) at Hawthorne.
  3. D’Rapper (9) – Interesting that Victor Santiago turns up here and not on Even Fever, as he was the regular rider for both and Even Fever ran huge last out. Should Prince Who flop and Even Fever rate, could wire these.
  4. Hothalfone (4 – underneath only) – Can’t trust this one on top since six furlongs is a bit short for him, but have to include him in exactas and trifectas since he can get a piece at this distance. On top, hold on to him for a six and a half furlong race.

Race 6

  1. Giant Sugarbaby (3) – Dreadful last out, but comes second off the lay here and gets a major rider upgrade to Rafael Hernandez. Won at Hawthorne last time he rode.
  2. Away She Glows (2) – If the tilt toward closers continues today, her recent form and her midpack running style make her dangerous. And, she is fit.
  3. She’s Pretty Cute (1) – Gets a much-needed class drop here, and has hit the board in four of six tries in main-track dashes.

Race 7

  1. Iker (1) – Clearly the speed of the speed, and should gun it out of the gate and wire this bunch. Rider Edgar Perez gets the best out of him.
  2. Champagne Tony (6) – If speed isn’t holding, he looms dangerous. He gets a class drop from what he faced last out, and comes here second off the lay for the dangerous pair of John Haran and Carlos Ulloa.
  3. Saturdayatbernies (4) – His form hasn’t been great lately, but gets a class drop, and has won four times in eight tries in main-track dashes.

Race 8

  1. Prairie Chick (5) – Second off the lay, and has been solid over the distance. Has a win and a second in four tries over the Hawthorne main, including an allowance 2nd with Denny Velazquez aboard.
  2. Crusader Girl Too (4) – Hasn’t raced since January in Tampa, but has two very strong works leading into this start. Fast, but also ratable. Loves the Hawthorne dirt.
  3. Kara’s Angel (1) – If speed is holding, she has an outside chance to dictate terms from gate to wire.

Race 9

  1. He Is Rhuthless (6) – Gets a class drop here, and speed can be strong in low-level maiden claimers. Edgar Perez could take this one all the way.
  2. Face to Face (1) – Class is the question, since he ships in from New Mexico. But, Manny Perez’s barn has been hot, hot, hot.
  3. Tax Day (3) – It’s hard to like an 0-15, but the only times he has hit the board have come in his last two starts. This has him second off the lay, so he could step forward from his last-out second.

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