For the final Friday of the Saratoga meet, I have a few more spot plays for Saratoga. I will be tweeting top picks for all of the races, but I am highlighting a couple of the races here: two races in which my top selection is a longer shot.
Race 3: $65,000 maiden claiming, three-year-olds and up, fillies and mares, 1 1/16 miles on the inner turf
Selections: Amazing Littlelady (2), One More Song (4), Touch of Snow (5)
Amazing Littlelady comes in here after having only raced once, back in May at Gulfstream. Trainer George Weaver is not shabby with horses coming off longer lays, winning at 14% with horses coming off lays of three months or more. She started poorly in her career debut, trailed throughout, and finished eighth. Here she drops into claimers for the first time, adds blinkers, and adds first-time Lasix. Furthermore, she has been working at the Spa all summer, so she should be fit and comfortable with her surroundings. She should be better set to succeed here than in her debut. One More Song races for the second time, after fading late at this level in her debut. She stretches out a bit here, an interesting tactic for a horse with a little more sprint-like breeding, but if you can trust one trainer in turf routes nowadays: it’s hers, Christophe Clement. She made her move too early in her first start — if jockey Joel Rosario can get her to relax and move in at a better time, she stands to contend. Finally, Touch of Snow races for the second time on these shores, after failing to break her maiden in seven starts in Ireland. She ticks up from the $40,000 claiming company she faced last out, but should be sharper here in her second start off the lay and the ship. The string of nice works since that last race bolsters the thought that she will be fitter here. Furthermore, her connections help her case. Jockey Irad Ortiz has been running very well at the Spa. Trainer Niall Saville has not run much at Saratoga this year, but has a win and two thirds in five starts. That win came with Irad Ortiz aboard.
Race 4: $25,000 starter allowance, three-year-olds and up, starters for $25,000 or less since January 1, 2013 AND who have not since won any races other than maiden, claiming, or starter, 1 1/4 miles over the dirt
Selections: Desvelo (3), Consipracy (1A), Village Warrior (7)
This race does not have a ton in the way of early speed, but the bigger question in this race is stamina: who in this starter allowance field actually wants to get ten furlongs? Desvelo is the only horse in this race who has attempted a mile and a quarter on the main. He has not gone that long in the US, but has a win and two thirds at that distance in Argentina — all over dirt. He faltered in his first few races here, unable to hang with the likes of Valid, Ground Transport, or Golden Lad…but does not have to here. He won a $22,000 N3L at nine furlongs on the Monmouth grass two back, and was third in the slop at Saratoga at the same distance last out. More than anyone else in the field, he should relish the stretch to ten furlongs. Conspiracy has never gone a mile and a quarter, but has several things to recommend him here. He is by Giant’s Causeway, a strong stamina influence. He won last out at a mile and an eighth over a fast Saratoga track — and is two-for-two lifetime over the dirt at the Spa. His speed figure in that race was not a huge deviation from what he is capable of, and he has been able to string wins together before. Finally, he has Irad Ortiz — a jockey who is a smashing 24% in route races — aboard. Village Warrior has the most inclination for early speed. If Conspiracy lets him go early, a likely tactic in such a long race, he could be dangerous dictating terms. He comes in here off a confidence-builder in a $20,000 N3L at nine furlongs, but earlier in the year was able to hold his own against stiffer allowance company. The ten furlongs is a bit of a question for a horse by Majestic Warrior out of a Gilded Time mare, but he has done well enough at nine furlongs against tougher company to make him competitive given the likely pace.
Blinkers Off 